Source: WHO
Can we quantify the risk of measles outbreaks (and if yes, using which data/models)?
How do we best estimate susceptibility?
Population-level susceptibility depends on:
(1) and (2) are in principle reported via coverage and case data
Does serology predict outbreaks?
Guerra et al., Lancet Inf Dis, 2017
Robert et al., BMC Med, 2022
General challenges
Serology for quantifying susceptibility
Models for quantifying susceptibility